There are any number of reasons why a trader hesitates before a trade.  The main one is lack of planning.  Without a plan, there is no degree of confidence a trade will be successful, it’s all wishful thinking. Unless they are outright gamblers, traders usually have a strong need to protect their assets and avoid risk. This is especially true for beginning traders. It can take a long time to build up sufficient capital for serious trading. By that I mean sufficient capital to be able to trade for a living. It is quite understandable to fear losing all or part of your initial capital. Beginners tend to seek absolute certainty before taking a risk, and gaining true confidence in you ability to trade successfully can take time. Unscrupulous marketers of mechanical trading systems and methods take advantage of the beginners fears and lack of confidence by advertising “sure-fire” “magic” ways to trade, instead of revealing the truth about the difficulties in becoming a consistently successful trader.

When it comes to short term trading, there isn’t very much time for long deliberations. Market conditions are in continuous flux. Decisions need to be made relatively quickly, and if one waits too long to execute a trade, he or she may miss a significant opportunity. The reasons for hesitation are everywhere, and traders must be aware of them, and create a plan to prevent them.  Let’s look at a few of the things that cause traders to hesitate:

The complex charting software available these days tends to increase hesitation.  Traders think that the more confirmation they can get from indicators, the more certain they can be that a trade will be successful.  However, all indicators lag the market. The notion that an indicator can somehow predict what will happen once a trade is entered is nothing more than wishful thinking. An indicator may give some degree of confidence about entering a trade, but the indicator cannot trade the trade, only the trader can do that. Once a trade is entered, it becomes entirely a process of management. It’s tempting to look at as many indicators and signals as possible. Doing so, however, can be very time consuming. That’s why seasoned traders advise looking at only a few if any key indicators.

Hesitation is often related to a lack of confidence in the trader’s trading strategy or trading ability. There are numerous reasons for such lack of confidence. Some of the reasons are shallow and mostly on the surface, like being distracted by watching financial TV while trading.  Other reasons are more deep-seated, and actually reflect psychological problems dating all the way back to early childhood.  A trader may not believe that his or her trading plan is adequately developed.  Nevertheless, they are determined to trade, so they muster up their courage and finally jump into a trade almost guaranteeing that the outcome will be a matter of pure chance.  Some traders may question their trading plan because they know that they did not spend enough time preparing it. Sometimes hesitation is intuitive, warning the trader to avoid the trade. All too often, traders are not tuned into their own intuitive feelings.  In the case of intuition, hesitation can act as a motivator. If the trader feels the hesitation is because of lack of adequate preparation, then that trader must learn to spend more time preparing for trades. By studying the markets a trader can come to see new higher probability setups, thereby reducing doubt and indecision, and in turn stop the hesitation because of more adequate preparation.

Hesitation sometimes reflects a deep desire to be right and a fear of being wrong. It has been our experience that many of the people who are attracted to trading fit into this category.  Great care must be taken by physicians, engineers, scientific types, and mathematicians, who seem to be the most prone to this type of hesitation. They are often perfectionists afraid to face their inadequacies. By putting off a decision, they don’t have to face their limitations, and can pretend they are better traders than they really are. If I had the time and space, I could give you dozens of examples of this kind of hesitation.  The perfectionist’s reality states that everything must be in order and follow rules.  They think strictly inside the box.  They want everything to be perfect, so they continually second guess and doubt themselves and what they are doing. They believe that they cannot cope with being wrong. This occurs in trading decisions as well as other life decisions. Extreme perfectionists often think that once they make a bad trade, it will be the start of a downward spiral and a complete blowout of their trading account.

Hesitation very often relates to low self-esteem or other deep-rooted psychological issues. We see these more times than we would like to.  Traders with low self-esteem usually lack confidence, not only in trading, but other areas of life. Beneath it all, they doubt their ability to trade, and hesitate making a trade until they the guilt of not doing so overcomes their fear.  At that point in time, they enter a trade out of pure compulsion driven by guilt.  This exposes them to a trade with no real plan to support it.  They become victims of pure chance.  We also find that traders who hesitate may have a conflict regarding their success. They can actually fear success.  They have been told by parents or others that they were no good, that they would never amount to anything, that they were “bad.” These people strive for success at one level of their consciousness, but at a deeper level, they secretly believe they cannot attain it, or do not deserve it.

Identifying, directly facing, and eventually eliminating a problem of hesitation is the only way to truly deal with it. Chronic hesitation will eventually destroy the confidence a trader needs for success. If the problem is not dealt with and the traders continues to hesitate, miss important market moves, and see his or her equity begin to dwindle, that trader runs the risk of becoming a phantom trader, a pretender, becoming convinced that the imaginary trades being made are real. If you are prone to hesitation, it’s vital that you deal with this problem early in your trading endeavors. Identify the reasons for it, confront the problem, and make changes as soon as possible. These are changes you have to make within yourself.  If you will truly engage in self-examination with the object of eliminating hesitation, you can trade become consistent and successful in trading profitably.

First, analyze the most recent price action. What are prices doing? Is there a definite pattern the you can detect? Where have prices been? Have they already run the stops close by? If you are daytrading, has there been sufficient volume during  the hours you like to trade?

Second, do you see any confirmation of your intentions in the recent price action. E.g. You are intending to go long and the last bar on the chart made a key reversal to the downside.  This would not be conducive to going long.

Third, apply the current information to whatever analysis you do. Faith has no place in the market, neither has wishing, praying or hoping. realistic analysis of price action and correct trade execution and management are the only things that will save you from the sting of an unsuccessful trade. If you’re going to pray, do it before you ever enter an order into the market.  Then make sure your prayer is the right one.  Don’t pray for prices to go up, because someone else may be praying for prices to go down. Pray instead for wisdom, guidance and insight.  In trading you, any alone are responsible for knowing what you are doing before you get into the markets. You must do more than believe in your abilities, you must effectively use them to produce the results you want. Successful trading is built on experience, which is in large part knowledge of what works and what does not work. Mistakes teach lessons only to students wanting to learn. If you are afraid of making mistakes, how are you going to learn? A key to success is to not repeat the mistakes, and correct the thoughts or trading methods that caused them.

My experience is that most people who trade options do not do very well. A major reason is that most option traders don’t know how options are priced. Without having a basic understanding as to how they are priced, it’s difficult to understand how, and why, they will change in value. This makes formulating good trading strategies practically impossible.

Before we can become good at understanding which strategies to implement, it’s important to know the basics. Just like stocks or futures, options are independent vehicles and trade differently than their underlying security. So, what makes the option value rise and fall? Options will basically track the underlying stock or future, but there are many variables in their pricing traders should know about. A way to help measure these variables is known as “The Greeks”.

“The Greeks” are really a series of calculations that measure risk/reward changes in the option price, with respect to changes in interest rates, time value, implied volatility and changes in the price of the underlying stock or future.

The four basic measurements are as follows:

1- The Delta is a measurement of the change that will take place in the option premium with respect to price changes in the underlying stock or futures contract. The values range from 0-100 where 100 would reflect 100% correlation to the underlying instrument. A delta of 50 would mean the option would move 50% to the underlying instrument. So if a stock or contract moved two points the option would move one point at a 50 delta. The delta is constantly changing with price changes in the underlying security.

2- The Gamma measures the rate of change of the delta. This is how fast the delta changes with movement in the underlying instrument.

3- The Theta measures the rate of decline in the value of the option caused by the time decay. Options have specific expiration dates, and the closer we move toward that date, the more the option will decay in value. This assumes no movement in the underlying instrument or changes in volatility.

4- The Vega measures the rate of change in the option with respect to increases and decreases in volatility. As volatility increases the option price will tend to increase even though there is no change in the price of the underlying stock or future.

Interest rates are always changing. Time does slip away. The prices of the stocks and futures do go up and down, and volatility is always changing. This is why it is critical to look at these “Greeks” and understand how they can help you formulate better trading strategies to buy “cheap options” and sell “expensive options”.

Click here to see a great summary sheet on 46 different commodities and their respective volatility ranges. Also on the link, click an individual commodity to see detailed analysis.

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Charles Maley

www.ViewpointsOfaCommodityTrader.com

The only consistent notion about stocks is that they are inconsistent. Investors that make decisions based entirely on emotional ‘gut feelings’ or make decisions based on desperation will only do about as well as they will at the casino. Planned, precise, and well thought out decisions make for strong trades. Online stock trading need not be a random roll of the dice.

Regardless of any pre-planned strategy with which an investor approaches the online trading world, there are two basic facets of any strategy. All trading is based on maximizing the profits while minimizing the risks. These two factors also tend to cancel each other out. The greatest risks usually turn the greatest profits while the smallest risks typically turn tiny but long term profits. This means that an individual investor needs to find their individual risk tolerance while building their strategy.

There will be losses. There’s no strategy in the world that can guarantee online stock trading without loss. Loss is part of the game no matter how serious the player. The most successful online stock traders in the world have one basic rule implemented into their trading strategy. They all have their stock portfolio divided into percentages. They have a predetermined percentage seeking high risk / high return stocks, a predetermined percentage seeking medium risk / medium return stocks, and a predetermined percentage seeking low risk / low return stocks. The predetermined percentages vary from investor to investor and some have the bulk of their percentages in low risk while others have the bulk in medium risk. Placing the bulk of the available funds in high risk stocks is a sign of either gambling or desperation, neither of which can be considered a very sound strategy.

The reason that these percentages are predetermined for the vast majority of successful online investors is to help maintain unemotional investing. If there is a set proportion of the available funds doing predetermined job, then the emotional highs and lows will not deflect the investor from their pre-determined strategy. Online stock trading can become emotional, and without discipline traders start making bad decisions based on their emotions. Keeping the emotion-led trading to a minimum is very difficult for many online traders, but it is a discipline that must be acquired.

Every individual investor’s strategy will vary to suit their needs, their risk tolerance, and their individual style. However, having a basic strategy before the account is even opened is a vital key to online stock trading. Investors without a strategy tend to lose more often than they succeed. Every individual investor’s emotional strings are different, and some will need firmer, more complicated rules before setting off into the online investment world. Others will do fine with a basic outline. While learning the ropes, it is best to dabble with small sums of money rather than place large chunks of money into any stock, no matter how good it seems. One of the most significant pros to online stock trading is the investor’s ability to go through the motions on paper without ever spending a dime while they keep an eye on the stocks they believe they are interested in. Over time, online stock trading can become a very healthy form of secondary or even primary income, but the investor has to start with a plan.

Bill Stewart is a work-at-home geek specialising in online options trading. For more information visit his website Online Trading Stock And Option

1) Contracts to buy blocks of stocks by a certain date
2) Commodity futures which are options to buy blocks of hard goods by a certain date

If you have options on 10,000 bushels of corn, whoever sold it to you cannot sell it to someone else until the expiration date of your contract has expired. In exchange for giving you this right, they wrote the contract and took money from you. If you don’t exercise your options prior to the expiration date, they will expect full control of their corn again, and will sell it someone else. What makes options such fascinating instruments are these facts:

1) With options you can sell that which you don’t own or ever plan on buying
2) You can buy something you don’t ever plan on physically holding and sell it for a profit

Another great thing about options is their inherent flexibility: although you have the right to buy or sell a certain stock or commodity, the choice is yours. You’re not forced to exercise your options. You can always sell your options contract to someone else. Many traders of commodities and options always sell the contracts only and have never taken physical possession of any underlying asset they’ve ever traded. The leverage in options gives you a chance to earn extremely high returns. These types of options we’re describing are referred to as covered options. With covered options you actually plan on or do own the underlying asset that you purchase options contracts for. Uncovered options are the exact opposite. Like the word uncovered means exposed, uncovered or naked options are considered more dangerous, because you are merely speculating without having an ownership interest. You are exposed to the risk without the benefit of owning the asset.

Options trading involves a great deal of leverage in the form of margin loans to your trading account. All options trades are highly leveraged, so you need to add margin interest to your calculated costs when considering a career in trading options. Pricing and potential returns on options trading depend very much on real world circumstances. If you purchase corn futures, for instance, there are literally hundreds of variables that affect the price of the corn, and hence your investment. If a corn shortage is expected in a certain part of the world, your investment might hit big because the price of corn could rise dramatically. On the contrary, perhaps government subsidies have introduced a glut of corn into the world market. In that case, your investment might tumble. Futures contracts for commodities and options contracts on stocks are strictly based on guessing what events will happen in the future. Of course you’ll always attempt to make as accurate as a guess as possible, but let’s face facts: in this world unforeseen things can and do happen. For this reason, protect your downside, and only invest with money you can afford to lose. Options trading can be very profitable, but unsurpisingly it’s also very risky.